In The Future

The future ‘aint what it used to be.

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Was six-year-old Gretzkey good enough for the NHL?

June 12th, 2008 · 326 Comments

This morning I read an investment report that discounts photovoltatic as unworkable due to their manufacturing cost.Photovoltaics DO work, and they do produce more energy than is necessary to manufacture and transport them. They’re not common on houses yet, but they are common on sailboats and roadside hazard signs.But that’s not the whole story with photovoltaics. It doesn’t take a condensed matter physicists to recognize that amorphic solar panels are essentially giant integrated circuits. It’s silly to assume that the current state-of-the-art photovoltaic panel will not progress any further. To the contrary, I think of current photovoltaic panels the same way that I think of that old microprocessor in the Atari 400 computer I had when I was a kid. Back then, I couldn’t dream how powerful computer chips would become, and that 4k memory card on my computer seemed pretty expansive. But last month, a friend sent an 8 Gb USB memory stick to me as a gift. Who could have imagined back in 1980 that so much memory would someday be squeezed into a device the size of my pinkie?That’s where we are with photovoltaics, because unlike any other method of energy production before or since, photovoltatics are perfectly suited to take advantage of the economies of scale in chip manufacturing. We did it with computer chips and LCD screens, the next step to photovoltaic panels will yield equally impressive results. Future photovoltaic panels will be more efficient, cheaper, flexible, durable. They’ll be built into common building materials like roofing panels, siding and windows.You ‘aint seen nothing yet.Hyperbole? Are these the musings of an imaginative physicist? No. There is a reason why I’m bullish on photovoltaics, and that reason is nothing less than the Second Law of Thermodynamics.Photovoltaic panels are the first electrical energy production method in history to have ZERO phase loss. Think about it … when you make electricity with a wind generator, you have to first convert mechanical energy to electricity. With nuclear you have to convert atomic energy to heat energy (steam) which is then converted to mechanical energy (turbine) which is then converted to electricity (dynamo). Ditto with coal, gas, geothermal, etc.. All of these forms of electricity production are inherently limited by the Second Law of Thermodynamics because they require several phase conversions to make our electricity.But photovoltaics? The photon hits the panel, knocks an electron loose, which makes instant electric current. Zero phase loss. Of course, for the physicist, that’s where the fun starts, because we want to find ways of lowering the work function of the material. We want to limit phonon loss, increase collector efficiency. Engineers want to find ways to make panels cheaper, chemists want to find ways to lower the cost of the thin film coatings and improve efficiency. Metallurgists want to improve substrates.But the thing to remember here, is that photovoltaics are in their infancy. There is still relatively little research in the area compared to research programs in magnetic and electronic materials. When the number of scientists in the field quadruple, I suspect the efficiency of solar panels will double.So, still think photovoltaics can’t manufacture all of the electricity that the world needs? That’s like looking at a six-year-old Wayne Gretzky and saying that he can’t play in the NHL.Finally, how much sun is available for solar photovoltaics?The average daily solar radiation falling on 1 acre of land in the U.S. is equivalent in total energy to about 11 barrels of oil.The U.S. currently uses about 100 quads of energy each year. (A quad is 10^15 BTUs.) How much solar energy is available for use in the U.S.? About 500,000 quads.I can’t tell you much about the future, but I am quite sure I know what will make our electricity in the future.

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